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Why Crude oil is falling?

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23-Apr-2008
Eduman
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There is lots of curiosity with respect to crude oil is falling. I have tried explaining in a simple language as what's happening

  1. All commodities including oil is traded through physical and exchange routes.
  2. In physical routes delivery is given and taken physically.
  3. On exchange platform, trades are done through Futures Contracts.
  4. In simple words there are two main Futures Contracts - The WTI and the Brent.
  5. WTI refers to the Oil from North America, while Brent refers to oil from Middle-east, Europe and Russia
  6. Oil price which went negative is the settlement prices for the May 2020 Delivery Contract (ONLY THAT ONE)
  7. There are two forms of settlements for most commodities including Crude Oil Futures Contract. One is physical delivery and the second is ‘Net Settlement’.
  8. In ‘Net Settlement’ the buyers and sellers of the contracts settle the financial difference between the buying price and the settlement price. So no physical delivery but only settlement in difference in prices.
  9. If a buyer of a Futures Contract doesn't opt for this ‘Net Setterment’ on or before the ""Notice Date"",then they are assumed to be taking physical delivery of the underlying quantity of Crude Oil contract.
  10. Now these buyers got stuck because they cannot take physical delivery of these contracts because they do not have the storage capacity to store.
  11. There are buyers, may be a refiners or drillers or someone with storage facility willing to take delivery. But he is asking money to for taking delivery to store.
  12. So these buyers will get delivery as well as money hence negative price. This situation never happened before.
  13. This is unique only for May 2020 contracts. The June delivery WTI futures are still trading in positive territory at $20. And the Brent Futures for June 2020 delivery are trading at $25.
  14. This will have huge consequences. This means that the US Crude Oil producers are now facing a glut. If they don't stop drilling than they will have to give the oil away free or pay people to buy that oil.
  15. WTI oil can't be dumped as it will cause an environmental disaster and result in billions of dollars of penalty oil drilling companies.

this is why crude oil is falling.

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